Portfolio Manager – Prediction Markets

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Moreton Capital Partners

WebsiteLinkedInAll Job Openings

2 - 10 employees

💸 Finance

🤖 Artificial Intelligence

Finance • Artificial Intelligence

Moreton Capital Partners is a systematic commodities investment manager that integrates agentic AI, large language models, and advanced machine learning with deep quantitative research, fundamental trading expertise, and institutional-grade risk management to capture inefficiencies across global energy, metals, and agricultural markets. The firm runs a market‑neutral, hypothesis‑driven strategy refined over eight years, with weekly rebalancing, ML-driven analytics for factor and regime risk monitoring, and a focus on interpretable portfolio construction and limited drawdowns. Leadership combines physical commodity trading and agronomy expertise with institutional investment management and operational scalability; products include Cayman master‑feeder share classes and separately managed accounts.

📋 Description

• Own the prediction markets P&L. Set strategy, manage risk limits, oversee position sizing, and ensure the portfolio operates within defined drawdown and exposure parameters at all times across all traders. • Lead the full investment process: idea generation, model validation, live execution, post-trade analysis, and systematic improvement cycles. • Build and manage a team of traders and analysts. Set research priorities, review work rigorously, and develop talent. • Define and evolve MCP's edge across strategy types: market making, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, statistical modelling on correlated contracts, and alternative data signal development. • Work with engineering to spec and prioritise infrastructure: execution systems, data pipelines, monitoring tools, and low-latency order management. • Contribute to investor reporting and, where relevant, capital raising — articulating the strategy's edge, risk profile, and performance clearly to institutional audiences.

🎯 Requirements

• Significant experience managing a live quantitative or event-driven trading portfolio with genuine P&L accountability — not just advisory or model-development roles. • Demonstrated edge in prediction markets, binary event trading, options, or closely related event-resolution domains. • Strong quantitative foundation: probability, Bayesian inference, statistical modelling, and portfolio construction. • Experience managing or mentoring junior trading professionals. • Clear, substantive engagement with the prediction markets ecosystem — platforms, mechanics, recent resolutions, structural inefficiencies. We will probe this in depth. • Undergraduate or postgraduate qualification in a quantitative discipline. • Bonus Points For • Experience operating on Polymarket, Kalshi, or equivalent platforms at meaningful scale. • Background in systematic commodity, macro, or multi-asset trading — our core competency and an area of genuine cross-pollination with prediction markets. • Familiarity with the analytics and data ecosystems around professional sports and major real-world event categories (politics, macroeconomics, climate). • Experience with blockchain/DeFi infrastructure relevant to on-chain prediction market platforms. • Prior involvement in fund-level processes: investor relations, risk reporting, or strategy documentation.

🏖️ Benefits

• Competitive base salary, meaningful performance-linked upside, and participation in MCP's broader success. Structure and quantum discussed at the offer stage with the right candidate.