Staff Machine Learning Engineer, Ads Forecasting – Scenarios

🔥 36 minutes ago

🇺🇸 United States – Remote

💵 $230k - $322k / year

⏰ Full Time

🔴 Lead

🤖 Machine Learning Engineer

👻 Ghost score 0%

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📋 Description

• Lead forecasting and scenario modeling for delivery, reach, performance, and investment tradeoffs • Set technical direction and guide execution across the team • Combine forecasts of advertising opportunities, audience activity, marketplace competition, and predicted response • Develop models for changes in budget, bid, audience, and optimization objective, including auction dynamics and campaign constraints • Assess how stronger creative could improve campaign results and quantify potential gains • Apply probabilistic forecasting, multitask learning, transfer learning, hierarchical modeling, or related approaches • Evaluate numerical accuracy, calibration, uncertainty, and cohort-level performance • Define supported scenarios and identify when further evidence or experimentation is needed • Compare predictions with mature outcomes, diagnose systematic errors, and validate scenario estimates • Partner with engineers on production ML training, serving, monitoring, and iteration • Lead designs, mentor engineers, and collaborate with Product, Data Science, Ads Delivery, Audience, and Creative teams

🎯 Requirements

• Track record of developing and shipping predictive ML systems in advertising, marketplaces, recommendations, search, demand forecasting, or similarly complex domains • Strong foundations in statistical learning, probability, and optimization • Experience modeling large-scale behavioral or transactional data • Depth in one or more of probabilistic or hierarchical forecasting, calibrated conversion/value prediction, multitask or transfer learning, delayed-feedback or survival modeling, or response modeling • Strong judgment in evaluation, including temporal validation, calibration, segment-level performance, and assumptions for estimating outcomes under changed conditions • Experience addressing sparse observations, cold start, seasonality, distribution shift, selection bias, or partially observed labels • Strong programming and software engineering skills • Experience building and operating production ML systems • Ability to lead ambiguous technical initiatives and make practical tradeoffs • Ability to develop other engineers • Preferred: complementary depth in demand, supply, and inventory forecasting; auction and investment modeling; scenario evaluation; reach and audience estimation; or advanced predictive methods

🏖️ Benefits

• Comprehensive Healthcare Benefits and Income Replacement Programs • 401k with Employer Match • Global Benefit programs that fit your lifestyle, from workspace to professional development to caregiving support • Family Planning Support • Gender-Affirming Care • Mental Health & Coaching Benefits • Flexible Vacation & Paid Volunteer Time Off • Generous Paid Parental Leave • Equity in the form of restricted stock units • Potential commission depending on the position offered • Medical, dental, and vision insurance • Opportunity to opt out of interview recording, transcription, and summarization

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